Guam Gov. Lou Leon Guerrero vetoed the budget bill. Was that a surprise? Not really. The odds were that she just might do it — and she did.

The real question is what Guam’s Republican senators have up their sleeves. If they weren’t prepared for this move, that doesn’t say much for their leadership or strategy. I’m waiting to see what play comes next.

The governor said she transmitted a duplicate budget bill back to the Legislature with one critical difference: The Business Privilege Tax rollback is null and void, and the rate remains at 5%. But that 1% — expected to amount to between $40 million and $80 million — will be directed specifically to the hospital.

This isn’t the first time Guam politics has seen a budget showdown. Former governors from both parties have used their veto power to force legislators back to the negotiating table. The difference this time is the stakes: A rollback in the business tax just as the federal government is tightening spending and federal tax cuts threatens local revenues.

Supporters of the rollback say putting money back into the hands of businesses will stimulate the economy. Critics argue that the loss in government revenue could cripple public services — and now the governor is framing the hospital as the test case.

It’s unfortunate that a compromise couldn’t be reached. With federal funding reductions still looming and their impact uncertain, the rollback might indeed be premature. In a volatile economic climate, prudence may outweigh generosity.

In her video message to constituents, the governor framed the choice starkly: keep the rollback that benefits a “privileged few,” or let her bill stand, which she says benefits all the people of Guam.

Republican senators responded by saying the veto undermines taxpayers who are struggling under high costs of living, and that the rollback was a promise they intended to keep. Both sides seem dug in — which means the next few days could determine not just the budget, but the political balance going into the election year.

Is this a governor’s checkmate? As with anything in Guam politics, you can never be sure. My only hope is that no matter how the board moves, the people aren’t the ones who lose.